Volume 11, Issue 30, July - December, 2025

Climate Change and Variability: Assessing Rainfall, Temperature, and Relative Humidity Trends in Mtwara, Tanzania

Elewa Msomba^1♦, Josephat Saria¹, Brown Gwambene²

¹Department of Physical and Environmental Sciences, Open University of Tanzania, Tanzania
²Department of Education, Faculty of Science and Education, University of Iringa, Tanzania

^♦Corresponding author
Elewa Msomba, Postal address: Tanzania Meteorological Authority, P.O Box 17, Mtwara, Tanzania

ABSTRACT

Climate change and variability have significant impacts on communities living in third-world countries. The impacts caused by climate change and variability have been more severe on poor people, especially those in agriculture and livestock farming. The assessment of climate trends and their impacts at local scales is not well covered. This study assessed long-term trends in key climatic variables (rainfall, temperature, and relative humidity). A cross-sectional design combined climate data from the Tanzania Meteorological Authority (TMA) with data gathered through household questionnaires, key informant interviews, focus group discussions, and field observations. The study used Microsoft Excel 2021 and SPSS version 26 for data analysis to obtain the descriptive statistics and linear regression methods to model climate trends. The results show increasing trends for rainfall (p=0.92e-55), minimum temperature (p=2.24e-26), maximum temperature (p=4.82e-17) and relative humidity (p=1.55e-35). There was a significant positive relationship between climate variables. The climate variables have a unimodal characteristic. Rainfall starts in November and ends in May, while dry periods start from May and end in October. The households experienced increased temperature, unreliable seasonal rainfall, extreme rainfall, increased dry spells and increased frequency of thunderstorms. The community perceive that climate extremes have affected crop production and livestock farming due to reduced soil quality, scarcity of water and increased pests and diseases.

Keywords: Climate change impacts, rainfall trends, temperature trends, humidity Trends

Climate Change, 2025, 11(30), e8cc3113

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Published: 01 July 2025