Volume 11, Issue 30, July - December, 2025

Cholera Dynamics: The Influence of Climatic Variability (Temperature and Rainfall) in Sumbawanga District, Tanzania

Felex Kibona^1♦, Josephat Saria¹, Brown Gwambene², Honest Emmanuel³

¹Department of Physical and Environmental Sciences, the Open University of Tanzania, P.O. Box 23409, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
²Faculty of science and education, P.O. BOX 200, University of Iringa, Tanzania
³Ministry of Health, P.O. Box 743, Dodoma, Tanzania

^♦Corresponding author
Felex Kibona, Department of Physical and Environmental Sciences, the Open University of Tanzania, P.O. Box 23409, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania;

ABSTRACT

Cholera is a waterborne disease mainly caused by the bacterium Vibrio cholerae. It has a significant impact on humans, leading to fatalities, especially in third-world countries with poor sanitation and inadequate water supplies. Variations in climatic conditions influence the development and survival of Vibrio cholerae, increasing the risk of cholera outbreaks. This study aims to assess the influence of climate variability on cholera dynamics in Sumbawanga District, Tanzania. It utilizes multiple sources of secondary data, including climatological data (rainfall, maximum and minimum temperatures) from 1994 to 2023, obtained from the Tanzania Meteorological Authority, and cholera cases from 2010 to 2024, obtained from the Ministry of Health, Tanzania. The trends and amount of climatological data were identified by using the Mann-Kendall trend test and the Sens slope estimator, where the significant fluctuation with a decreasing trend in yearly average total rainfall and statistical significance with increasing trends were indicated in both minimum and maximum temperature. Moderate negative correlation (-0.39) was revealed between rainfall and maximum temperature, while a strong negative correlation (-0.64) was revealed between rainfall and minimum temperature. The result indicated a very weak negative relationship between rainfall and cholera incidence in Sumbawanga District, with a correlation coefficient of -0.08. The relationship between maximum temperature and cholera incidence showed a very weak negative correlation of -0.05, while the correlation between minimum temperature and cholera incidence revealed a strong positive correlation of 0.82. According to these findings, immediate actions are required to miminize the effects of cholera related to climate variability. Therefore, policymakers, local authorities, and development stakeholders should collaborate to alleviate adverse effects and enhance resilience in vulnerable communities.

Keywords: Cholera, temperature, rainfall, Climatic variability, and correlation

Climate Change, 2025, 11(30), e10cc3127

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Published: 01 September 2025