Volume 11, Issue 29, January - June, 2025

Modeling climate change impacts on Boro rice production in Bangladesh

Md Abu Zafur Al-Munsur¹, Shahidul Islam², Parimal Kanti Biswas³, Mirza Hasanuzzaman², Ismail Hossain²

¹Deputy Director, Department of Agricultural Extension Ministry of Agriculture, Bangladesh
²Professor, Department of Agronomy Sher-e-Bangla Agricultural University, Dhaka -1207, Bangladesh
³Ex. Professor, Department of Agronomy Sher-e-Bangla Agricultural University, Dhaka -1207, Bangladesh

ABSTRACT

The study aimed at modeling of climate change impacts on boro rice production in Bangladesh under CERES-Rice model using DSSAT 4.7. Eight division of Bangladesh (Barishal, Chattogram, Dhaka, Mymensingh, Rajshahi, Khulna, Rangpur and Sylhet) and two widely cultivated variety (BRRI dhan29 and BRRI dhan58) were used as treatment of the experiment. Modeling was done by DSSAT 4.7. The estimated grain yield reduction due to temperature rise was 2.6%, 6%, and 11% for BRRI dhan29 and 8.7%, 17.2% and 26.8% for BRRI dhan58 for one °C, two °C and three °C, respectively. The highest yield reduction was observed in Dhaka, Sylhet and Chattogram whereas, the lowest was observed in Rajshahi, Rangpur and Mymensingh division. Dhaka, Sylhet and Chattogram were the most vulnerable area of rice production due to climate change. However, growing long-duration variety like BRRI dhan29 might be an option to mitigate climate change impact on these regions. The yield loss was minimized by the combined effects of higher CO2 concentration and elevated air temperature. However, elevated CO2 concentration will not be able to completely offset yield. Besides, the reduction in crop growing period due to temperature rise will cause a substantial yield reduction of current rice cultivars. Crop developers will soon face the problem of developing a new cultivar which can tolerate the effect of elevated temperature with no significant yield loss.

Keywords: Modeling, Climate Change, Impacts, Boro Rice, BRRI dhan29, BRRI dhan58, DSSAT

Climate Change, 2025, 11(29), e1cc1051

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.54905/disssi.v11i29.e1cc1051

Published: 03 January 2025