Volume 10, Issue 28, July - December, 2024

Historical analysis of climate variability and agricultural production in Nigeria (1931-2020)

Alexander Chinago Budnukaeku^1♦, Ojule Soldier Emmanuel²

¹Department of Transportation Planning and Management, School of Environmental Science, Captain Elechi Amadi Polytechnic, Rumuola, Port Harcourt, Rivers State, Nigeria
²Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, Faculty of Social Science, Ignatius Ajuru University of Education, Rumuorlumeni, Port Harcourt, Rivers State, Nigeria

^♦Corresponding author
Department of Transportation Planning and Management, School of Environmental Science, Captain Elechi Amadi Polytechnic, Rumuola, Port Harcourt, Rivers State, Nigeria

ABSTRACT

This paper investigates the historical relationship between climate variability and agricultural production in Nigeria from 1931 to 2020. Agriculture, employing around 70% of the workforce and significantly contributing to GDP, is a cornerstone of Nigeria’s economy but is highly vulnerable to climate variability. The study employs a mixed-methods approach, integrating quantitative data analysis with qualitative assessments to explore the impacts of temperature, precipitation, and extreme weather events on major crops. Historical climate data was sourced from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET), and agricultural production statistics were obtained from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Findings reveal significant correlations between climatic factors and agricultural yields. Temperature records show a gradual increase over the study period, with notable spikes in the late 20th and early 21st centuries. Rainfall data indicates significant variability, with periods of drought interspersed with heavy rainfall events increasing in recent decades, affecting agricultural cycles. Statistical analysis highlights that maize, sorghum, and millet yields are particularly sensitive to these climatic changes. For instance, maize yields declined by over 20% during the droughts of the 1970s and 1980s. Qualitative insights from historical narratives and case studies illustrate the diverse impacts of climate variability across different regions of Nigeria. In northern Nigeria, the Sahelian droughts led to significant declines in sorghum and millet production, while in southern regions, excessive rainfall often caused flooding, impacting cassava and yam production. Farmers have historically employed adaptive strategies, including crop diversification, irrigation, and soil management practices. The study underscores the necessity for robust climate adaptation policies to mitigate adverse effects on agriculture. Policy recommendations include promoting climate-resilient crop varieties, enhancing irrigation infrastructure, and implementing early warning systems for extreme weather events. The findings highlight the critical need for adaptive strategies to ensure the sustainability of Nigeria’s agricultural sector amid on-going climatic changes.

Keywords: Climate variability, agricultural production, Nigeria, historical analysis, climate change, sustainable agriculture

Climate Change, 2024, 10(28), e8cc1039

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.54905/disssi.v10i28.e8cc1039

Published: 03 September 2024