Volume 10, Issue 28, July - December, 2024

Modeling the impact of some weather factors on the prevalence of fruit rot and premature nut fall diseases of coconut

Ekhorutomwen OE^1,3, Uyi SO², Chidi NI¹, Shittu HO³

¹Plant Pathology Division, Nigerian Institute for Oil Palm Research (NIFOR), PMB 1030 Benin City, Edo State, Nigeria
²Statistics Division, Nigerian Institute for Oil Palm Research (NIFOR), PMB 1030 Benin City, Edo State, Nigeria
³Department of Plant Biology and Biotechnology, University of Benin, Benin City, Edo State, Nigeria

ABSTRACT

Coconut (Cocos nucifera L.) provides a staple food and serves as a cash crop in many developing countries. Also, it provides a tremendous foreign exchange to producer countries across the world. Its production is mainly affected by climate, soil, and diseases. Climate change threatens crop production, both directly through changes in crop growth and yield, and indirectly through the development of diseases, pests, and weeds in crops. The aim of the study was to determine the impact of some weather factor on the prevalence of fruit rot and premature nut fall diseases of coconut. In the study, data on fruit rot and premature nut fall diseases of coconut (classified as dependent variables), and some weather factor data (temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity: Classified as independent variables) were collected daily from two locations across two growing seasons in four varieties of coconut. Regression analysis was used to study the impact of temperature, rainfall and relative humidity on the percentage of disease incidence (PDI) of fruit rot and premature nut fall diseases of coconut. The results from the regression analysis on the impact of the independent variables on the dependent variables (PDI of fruit rot and premature nut fall diseases of coconut) show that, when the R2 (coefficient of variation) value is equal to or above 0.5, it suggests that the independent variables were highly regressive on the dependent variables. When the R2 value is below 0.5, it suggests that the independent variables were not regressive on the dependent variables. More so, the findings from the study reveals that weather factors like temperature, rainfall, and humidity significantly influence the PDI of fruit rot and premature nut fall diseases in coconut varieties.

Keywords: Weather factors, variables, varieties, percentage of disease incidence, regression analysis.

Climate Change, 2024, 10(28), e11cc1049

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.54905/disssi.v10i28.e11cc1049

Published: 19 November 2024