Volume 12, Issue 25, January - June 2026

Climate Change and the Future of Cereal Production in Niger: Projections to 2050 Using SARIMA and PLS-SEM Analysis

Issaka Saidou ISMAILLA^1♦, Haydar ŞENGÜL¹, Şinasi AKDEMIR¹, Seyit HAYRAN¹

¹Faculty of Agriculture, Department of Agricultural Economics, Çukurova University, Adana, 01330, Turkey

^♦Corresponding author
Issaka Saidou ISMAILLA, Faculty of Agriculture, Department of Agricultural Economics, Çukurova University, Adana, 01330, Turkey

ABSTRACT

Climate change in the Sahel is a challenge for the agriculture sector in Niger, which is mainly based on rain-fed cereal production, of an existential demand. The relationship between stressors and future crop performance is highlighted, despite the historical evidence of increasing temperatures and erratic rainfall. This study projects production trends until 2050 and the effects of climate change on the major cereals of Niger: millet, sorghum, and maize. A dual modelling approach is applied in this study, with the integrated seasonal moving average autoregressive models (SARIMA) used to predict the performance up to 2050 and the partial least squares structural equation modelling (PLS-SEM) used to investigate causal relationships among climatic variables (temperature and precipitation) and agricultural indicators (area and yield). The climate analysis shows that over the past 30 years, there was a warming trend of 0.04°C per year, which is equivalent to a warming of approximately 1.3°C. The PLS-SEM model results show that cereal production appears to be strongly influenced by climatic conditions, as well as by the cultivated area (0.737) and the yield (0.695) of sorghum, which underlines the particularly high sensitivity of this crop. Note that the production of total sorghum and millet is projected to rise 69.1% and 47.4%, respectively, by 2050, but this is because of land extensification (increase in area), and not an increase in productivity. Moreover, unstable rainfall and heat stress are expected to lead to stagnation, or even a decline, in yields for all three crops. Based on these findings, Niger's current food security strategy is based on an unsafe expansion of cultivated land, both horizontally and environmentally. To prevent a systemic collapse of the cereal sector by the middle of the century, a shift from reactive land expansion to proactive, climate-adaptive intensification is essential.

Keywords: Niger, climate change, cereal production, SARIMA, PLS-SEM, food security.

Discovery Agriculture, 2026, 12, e18da3217

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Published: 16 June 2026