Volume 12, Issue 25, January - June 2026

The Impact of Rainfall on Maize Production in Nigeria: A 20 Year Empirical Analysis (2005‒2024)

Chinago Budnukaeku Alexander^1♦

¹School of Environmental Sciences, Captain Elechi Amadi Polytechnic Rumuola, Port Harcourt, Nigeria

^♦Corresponding author
Chinago Budnukaeku Alexander, School of Environmental Sciences, Captain Elechi Amadi Polytechnic Rumuola, Port Harcourt, Nigeria

ABSTRACT

This study examines the impact of annual rainfall patterns on Nigerian maize (Zea mays) production over a twenty year period (2005‒2024). It examines how changes in weather patterns and extreme climatic events like droughts and floods impact on maize production over Nigeria, using historical climate data sourced from the World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal and production statistics from FAOSTAT and USDA-FAS. Recent research shows that maize grows better where rainfall is moderate or adequate; however, extreme events such as droughts and floods are inimical to maize yield and productivity. Adverse climatic conditions impacts negatively on national maize output. The findings among other things revealed a positive significant correlation between optimal rainfall distribution and maize yield; similarly extreme climatic fluctuations pose substantial risks and challenges to maize yield and national food security. This study shows that 2011 and 2015 stands out as notable drought years that negatively impacted maize production growth in Nigeria, while 2019 and 2024 recorded excessive rainfall resulting to localized flood, damaging of maize and other crops which triggers low maize production. The study also observed that factors, such as area expansion, improved cultivars and technological knowhow improves the crop cultivation, however, rainfall stands out as the primary exogenous determinant of annual productivity. The work recommended the adaptation of climate-smart agricultural practices, which includes drought-resistant seed varieties and improved drainage systems, to migrate the impacts of climate change.

Keywords: Adaptation Strategies, Climate Change, Drought, Flood, Food Security, Maize Production, Nigeria Agriculture, Rainfall Variability, Smallholder Farmers

Discovery Agriculture, 2026, 12, e17da3193

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Published: 12 June 2026